Raleigh, North Carolina.Tropical Storm Erin has only a 6 percent probability of making landfall in North Carolina next week, according to historical hurricane data. Only three of the 51 storms that passed within 50 miles of Erin’s current location made landfall in North Carolina, according to data from the previous 175 years, as reported by CBS 17.
Storm History and Comparisons
Hurricane Connie and Tropical Storm Diane in August 1955 and Hurricane Six in 1933—the latter happening prior to storms being officially named—are examples of uncommon landfalls. The majority of comparable storms have avoided direct damage on the Carolinas by avoiding the U.S. coastline.
Although these historical odds are noteworthy, Chief Meteorologist Wes Hohenstein stressed that they have no direct impact on Erin’s actual forecast for this year. However, the statistics highlight the rarity of a tropical system reaching North Carolina from Erin’s current location.
Current Forecast Path
By late this weekend, Erin may intensify into a Category 3 storm, according to the National storm Center, and move just north of the Caribbean. Early next week, according to several forecast models, the storm will curve northward, passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. By next Wednesday, it may be getting close to North Carolina without reaching landfall.
Although a direct hit doesn’t seem likely, forecasters warn that the situation will change over the next few days and advise locals to stay vigilant.
Staying Weather-Ready
Forecasters advise North Carolinians, especially those who live near the shore, to keep a careful eye on updates and refresh their hurricane protection plans. Erin could deliver severe rain, rip currents, and surf to areas of the state even if it doesn’t make landfall.
Do you believe that the Carolinas are well equipped to withstand a powerful hurricane? Visit SaludaStandard-Sentinel.com to share your thoughts and advice on being ready.
